End of Season 2006 - The Wrap

With the AFL 2007 season about to kick off, it's time to wrap up 2006. By our reckoning, there was nearly one disturbing footballer incident a week in a year characterised by drugs, booze and assaults. Still, that's probably better than the awful rape frenzy of 2003/2004.

The notable absence of public rape scandals didn't mean that all was peachy for our footballers in the romance department. Instead, we saw some spectacular break-ups and court appearances over soured love. First there was the alleged knife attack by Ashley Sampi. Then there was Alan Didak publicly flaunting his anger management issues with his then-girlfriend, glamazon model Cassie Lane. Not to mention the ugly public nuptials of Colin Sylvia and Elise Whichello, which ended up in court with intervention orders and allegations of death threats against a concerned passerby. Not to be outdone, yesterday's hero Wayne Carey was accused of domestic violence against his model girlfriend Kate Neilson by The Herald-Sun. And Essendon's Andrew Lovett tried to re-capture the lost passion ... by (allegedly) taking hostage soon-to-be-ex Kimberlie Watson. Again, more court appearances and intervention orders followed. While time and space doesn't allow us to comment on all footballer infidelity, Wayne Carey's cheating on his pregnant wife - again - does deserve special mention. So who'd be a footballers wife? (Or girlfriend?) Especially with hot teenaged models (*cough* Lara Bingle *cough*) coming onto their men on telly. Certainly Alex Fevola must be regretting getting into bed with philanderer Brendan Fevola (both literally and in terms of their restaurant joint venture).

Speaking of joints, the big news of the year was the ongoing footy drug scandal. In a nutshell, the AFL players' union forced a deal on the AFL whereby players can only be named for taking drugs after they're caught the third time. The names of three players - who were caught twice - were leaked to parts of the media and published. (A larger group has been caught once but their identities remained under wraps.) An injunction stopping the public discussing this issue was taken out. Then a court case ensued, with newspapers on one side and the footy establishment on the other. Despite arguments about free speech, public interest and the fact the names were already published, the courts found in favour of the footballers. A permanent injunction is now in force and anyone who publishes the names of the players will be drawn and quartered. The contrast with other sports (and the AFL's stance on player gambling) could not be any more exquisitely hypocritical.

Still, there's no doubt that things have tightened up a bit on the drug-taking front. Of course, the Law of Unintended Consequences kicked in and - as predicted - the problems with booze have escalated as footballers try to manage their withdrawal from the harder drugs. 2006 saw a spate of alcohol-fuelled bashings and violence: death threats at 11am from Simon Goodwin and friends; Chris Tarrant and Ben Johnson in a late-night car park assault; sexual harassment and pub brawling in St. Kilda from Fraser Gehrig, Michael Voss, Simon Black and the lesser-known Steve Lawrence and Craig McCrae; international disgrace from Brendan Fevola over attacking Irish pub staff; more fighting in pubs with Sam Mitchell, then Jeff Farmer and Steven Dodd, then Andrew Krakouer hospitalised a teenager before attacking a taxi driver; Geelong's Steve Johnson was arrested for assault in Wangaratta. Heath Scotland - not shy about hitting women - allegedly punched another woman, this time in Ballarat. The other allegation of footballer-on-woman assault (yes, Brodie Holland) is slowly wending its way through the courts. It's been set back so often I wouldn't hold your breath. Sheesh, even revered Michael Long was up on pub-related assault charges! No wonder the ugly brutalism of AFL culture is seeping out and infecting the wider Australian society, as shown by last year's anti-Semitic attacks by amateur footballers.

Drunkenness doesn't have to manifest itself in direct violence - plenty of footballers have done their bit to threaten our well-being just by getting behind the wheels of their bogan wagons. Players like Michael Gardiner, Chad Morrison and Brad Ottens. Ignoring road rules (hey, they're for other people to obey, not footy stars) comes naturally to these bloody idiots. Just ask Ben Cousins, Mark Williams, Corey McKernan or Brodie Holland.

Of course, not all footballers need to be drunk to throw their weight around. Giant two-metre tall Dean Brogan shocked the nation when he punched out a teenager at Adelaide Airport while apparently stone-cold sober. Footy players also took to using their union to intimidate and threaten people with lawyers. Individual players, like Chris Tarrant, will get their managers and PR flaks to do the threatening for them. Hell, even the AFL executive isn't above dishing out a spray to media commentators, fans of other football codes or just about anything they don't like.

It's not surprising that the AFL executive, union and sponsors have kept quiet about our legal system. The way our courts are sentencing AFL players at the moment they've got nothing to complain about. Our courts were clogged with footballers last year, with the AFL Division of the Melbourne Magistrates Court barely able to keep up. In addition to the dozens mentioned above, we had Campbell Brown let off without serious penalty, tax avoidance charges for Dipper and Matthew Campbell and fraud and dishonesty charges for David Dench and Peter Grahame Hall. But most serious was the staggering kid-gloves treatment for Kade Carey, Dane Swan and Aaron Ramsay for a series of vicious assaults at Federation Square that left several hospitalised.

Despite dozens of appearances before the courts, it was all delayed justice, suspended sentences, paltry fines and minor inconvenience. Hell, Collingwood had four current and former players in court in just one month last year! The only sensible reaction to this broad swathe of lawlessness was to start up betting on which club would next see a player in court. Despite getting zero support from our politicians for the idea and no commercial backing, we persevered and were able to get a play-money version up and running. Congratulations to Mazda for a great win.

Just reading over this summary of offensive lawlessness and disgrace, we wonder how anyone associated with the AFL (or Aussie Rules in general) can defend this pack of wankers. What are we talking about here? A few hundred young men with all the fame and money in the world and they lounge about playing X-Box, gamble away their future and engage in unlawful and immoral behaviour at a rate that should sicken the rest of us. But it doesn't. Australia has collectively placed its head up its arse when it comes to a clear-eyed assessment of these dickheads who, for many, can do no wrong. The disturbing Footy Chicks documentary highlighted just how far the culture of hero worship has set in.

What can we do? Well, for starters you can arm yourself with the latest in protection at the Speccy Shop (we offer a range of equipment to protect against footballer threat). You can try to be aware of the presence of footballers when you're out on the town. But, mostly, you can try to change attitudes. The next time you hear someone excusing the latest footy scandal or criminality, challenge them on it. Why do we tolerate behaviour in these idiots - just because they have natural talent? No, we get the footballers we deserve and it's up to us to drive the standards higher.

Word Count: 1364

Tags: footy

Aussie Rules Misbehaviour Market - An Introduction

As part of The Speccy's campaign for a commercial online betting service for AFL players' court appearances, we started a proof-of-concept prediction market, where anyone can play for free. This post introduces the Aussie Rules Misbehaviour Market (ARM) to help you get started.

First off, why are we doing this? The short answer is that prediction markets like this help people make informed choices. By providing a simple mechanism to share and aggregate information about likely future player misbehaviour, the community benefits in getting the best possible tip-offs. For example, if the odds dramatically shorten for one particular club, you may want to avoid their favoured drinking establishments. In effect, we're using the "wisdom of crowds" to provide a more specific and reliable AFL Footballer Threat Indicator.

The benefits for the individual punter come in bragging rights and the self-satisfaction that comes from out-punting everyone else. Of course, it's also good practice for when commercial wagering on AFL players in court starts up - and people are betting with real money.

The market itself is pretty straightforward to understand and operate, thanks to our partners at CrowdIQ. Each club has 1000 contracts (for a total of 16,000). Each contract will "pay out" $100 to the holder if and when that club is the first to have a player in court. All the rest pay out zero. All contracts are freely-traded in the interim at what ever price and volume participants wish. The price of a contract goes up and down over its lifetime, driven by buyers and sellers. The price is determined by how likely it is to pay out ie for that club to be the first with a player in court.

If the price of a contract on Collingwood is presently $20, that means that the market estimates the chances of Collingwood being the first club in court is 20%. If you reckon it's actually more - say 50% - then you should bid $21 and buy up as many as you can. If you think the chances are really much lower - say 5% - then you should sell any Collingwood contracts you own. (You could also try short selling, laying a Dutch Book or related strategies.)

There are many factors that will influence the price of a particular club's contract:

• Adding/dropping notorious players from the list


• "Free weekends" due to injuries or split rounds


• Lack of availability of cocaine


• Elimination in the finals


• Emotionally tough matches (drubbings and nail-biters)


• New batch of particularly strong crystal meth in town


• Team bonding sessions


• Schoolies week


• Sharp price movements in other clubs

This last one occurs because - in theory - all the probabilities should add to one. That means that if price increases for one club (ie odds shorten), then they must come down (ie odds lengthen) for the others. Savvy punters will take advantage of that fact in fine-tuning their portfolio.

Of course, there's a wealth of private information that influences prices too. This is where the punters' ability to sniff out rumours, anticipate crises and generally keep in touch with events comes to the fore. This is where it pays to keep an ear to the ground. So, if you're a door bitch, drug dealer, footy slut, trainer, barman, journo, hooker, bouncer, priest or police officer - you get an unfair advantage over the rest of us.

Most of the time, the contract prices will reflect the general assessment of the lawlessness of each club. As such, they reflect a kind of broad-based reputation. Things get volatile when a scandal or criminal incident breaks. It could play out in a number of different ways. Suppose the matter is kept under wraps for a few days; only insiders will know and will have an opportunity to make a few judicious trades before it goes public. Once a player has been charged, it's almost certain they'll be in court. The price for that club will get close to $100, while all others tend to $0.

On other occasions, there may be a delay between an incident going public and the laying of charges - think Dean Brogan or Tarrant/Johnson - and there will be much speculation and volatility in the prices. Other times, it will be a dead cert that the player will be in court once it breaks (like Michael Gardiner) and the market acts like a raffle.

A couple of other matters about the structuring of the market.

The initial prices for the contracts are set by IPO (Initial Public Offering) via a Dutch auction. This means that people can bid silently up until this weekend ie Sunday, 13th of August on how many contracts they wish to buy. The system will automatically allocate them to punters, based on this auction. After this period, all contracts will be in flux and will be traded in the usual fashion.

So if you reckon each club is as bad as the next, then the "fair price" is $6.25 ($100/16) per contract. You may wish to set each club at a discount or premium to that "base rate" based on your assessments of their general lawlessness. Note: past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour, but it is no guarantee.

Contracts are "resolved" once a player appears (either in person or by a representative) in an Australian court facing criminal charges. To avoid contempt of court issues, this market does not allow speculation on any decisions or findings of the courts. It only pertains to new matters about incidents that have (allegedly) occurred prior to the start of the market. Therefore, re-appearances about older matters - such as sentencing, appeals etc - do not count.

The Speccy, as market manager, is responsible for deeming when a contract is resolved. We take all care in monitoring the media for this, but we are not infallible. Therefore, we're happy to take any tip-offs or leads about court events that we may have missed.

Once a contract is resolved, the market is closed, contracts "pay out" (winners are grinners) and a new market is established for the next round of speculation.

Ready? OK, check out the prices ... and happy punting!

Word Count: 1051

Tags: footy, court, scandals, gambling

Speccy Shop: Surviving The Footy Season

Here at The Speccy, we take great pride in providing factual, balanceding and potentially life-saving information to the wider community. Through our regular bulletins and world-first AFL Threat Level Indicator, we're at the forefront of football public safety. But with AFL Season 2006 creeping up on us like a lecherous boss at an office Christmas party, we believe the time has come to empower our readers.

Starting from today, you can couple the first-class analysis and key insights from The AFL Player Spectator with high-quality tools to help you protect you and your loved ones in this time of peril. We've carefully selected a range of essential equipment and knowledge to ensure you can enjoy a night out without the constant worry of attack by a pack of drug-addled predatory footy players with something to prove.

Please Note ...

These items are offered for sale by our retail partner, Amazon.com. Please check whether it is legal to import, purchase and possess these items in your local jurisdiction. The Speccy will receive a modest commission of around 5% on sales. If you'd like to contribute directly, please use the donation button found on the sidebar on the right. This catalogue is subject to change without notice and all product enquiries and transactions are to be directed to Amazon.com. If you have further suggestions for the Speccy Shop, please send 'em in. We'd be happy to help out.

Stun Gun

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Let's not mince words. Sometimes, an upfront and direct approach is required to deal with burly and aggressive footy players. We've searched the market for something that we believe will stop an AFL player in his tracks. From the product description:

Simply touching an attacker with a stun gun for three to five seconds will deliver a high voltage shock causing loss of balance and muscle control, confusion and disorientation, bringing him to his knees and making him incapable of further aggressive activity.

Yep, as a last resort, this should dissuade even the most diehard footballer from further attacks. NB: Check if this product is legal for you to have before ordering!

Pepper Spray

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Stun guns are great, but you may want to disable your assailant before he gets close enough to zap. In this case, you might want to consider pepper spray. On reading the description for this product, it seemed it was almost designed with AFL players in mind:

Because it is an inflammatory, rather than an irritant, OC is effective against all those who feel no pain such as psychotics, drunks and drug abusers. OC has proven itself to be the ABSOLUTE BEST DETERRENT available for attacking dogs and wild animal control.

This will "deter" AFL players alright! (Again, please check legality first to avoid disappointment.)

First-Aid Kit

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Despite the best planning and self-defence measures, sometimes things will go wrong. In which case, you and your friends will need to be ready for a quick patch-up while the ambulance arrives. This first-aid kit includes all the life-sustaining equipment you'll need for a big night out in Footy Town.

The cutting-edge urban bag design and "safety-first" bright orange means it will not be out of place at the rave parties and underground clubs where so many players stalk their prey. You may also wish to undertake a first-aid course and encourage your drinking buddies to do the same. You never know, the life you end up saving could be you own.

Breathalyser

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A simple breathalyser can play an important part of protecting yourself against AFL attack. A recent case in Western Australia involving Ben Cousins shows that footballers will - quite literally - run a mile when confronted with the prospect of being breathalysed.

A secondary use is to monitor the blood-alcohol levels of your friends and family when in public, as footballers can sniff out a heavily-intoxicated female - even from adjacent pubs. Note that this particular model will only measure BAC up to 0.12% - and hence is entirely useless for testing AFL players themselves.

Drug Test Kit

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Consider this list:

Marijuana, cocaine, ecstasy, PCP, amphetamines, opiates and methamphetamines

No, that's not the shopping list for an AFL end of season trip. That's the range of drugs detected by this urinalysis kit. At first blush, it seems the chances of getting a footy player to wee into a cup is vanishingly small. Hell, it took months of negotiations and hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayer money to get them to agree to any testing all! (Not to mention all the strife the results have caused.) But here's the trick: if you're one of the many women who has been urinated on by a footballer in a pub, you can ring out your clothes into a cup for immediate testing - and legal action. Not to mention media sales. Cha-ching! This only needs to happen once and those bastards will stop pissing on pub-goers quicker than you can say "Today Tonight".

Body Armour

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This slim and attractive undergarment will protect you from a range of body blows delivered by footballers. Comfortable, durable and replete with foam padding and Lycra(TM), it is designed for demanding encounters with Rugby players. Which means that the comparatively small and girlie-armed AFL footballers have no chance of getting through this bad boy. Further, the appearance of your beefed-up physique will frighten away all but the most drunken of footballers. You may wish to consider complementing this item with other padding and personal protection wear, given that your lower limbs, head and genitals are now dangerously exposed.

Rape Prevention Book

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Sadly, despite all efforts to the contrary, footballers will continue to rape. In an ideal world, women should not have to bear the burden of stopping these awful attacks. But, due to widespread misogynistic attitudes, women are forced to step up and take control for their own safety. They say that being forewarned is being forearmed. And speaking of being forearmed, that's just one of the techniques you'll learn in this thoughtful guide to rape prevention.

This program demonstrates specific techniques that women of all ages can use to protect themselves from a rapist and to stop a rape if in progress. The techniques have been proven to work.

Drink Spike Testers

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We've seen how some AFL players think it's amusing to spike women's drinks - even the wives of their supposed mates! It's distressing to think that footballers are passing around so-called date rape drugs like Rohypnol in order to rape incapacitated women. Common sense suggests you should never accept a drink from a footballer, or leave it unattended. However, for those occasions when it's impossible to avoid, you should consider these Drink Spike Detectors.

A personal test strip designed to detect the possible presence of illicit "Date Rape" drugs in alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.

These little strips could save you or a friend from ending up playing a starring role in the bizarre sexual initiation rites of an AFL team.

Night Vision Scope

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It's no secret that most AFL attacks occur after dark. While our city officials do what they can do install safe lighting in our urban areas, there are still plenty of dark alleys, parks and other nooks. With this handy and easy-to-use Night Vision Scope, you'll be able to see them coming:

Its hand-cradle gives you easy, comfortable yet secure one-handed operational use. This monocular is extremely versatile and incorporates a powerful built-in infrared illuminator and a tripod mount into a lightweight and compact body.

STD Self-Diagnosis

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If you have any sexual contact with a footballer - either consensual or forced - you should consider using this book. It's probably worth a look even if you just availed yourself of a toilet in a pub or club frequented by footballers.

From the author's world renown collection of clinical photographs comes this unprecedented collage of full color views of common and uncommon sexually transmitted diseases. An invaluable tool for differential diagnosis of STDs, the atlas features one to two color photograph for each disorder and accompanies those with the salient points of epidemiology, clinical signs, physical exam, diagnosis and management.

Just the ticket for that mysterious post-encounter rash or sticky discharge. Please note: you should always seek medical and legal advice after a sexual encounter with an AFL player.

DNA Testing Kit

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Unfortunately, you can't rely on AFL players to be wearing their numbered guernseys when they bash or rape. Identifying them after the attack can be difficult, especially if it's dark, there's more than one, and alcohol is involved (as is often the case). That's where DNA profiling can be an absolute godsend. The AFL Players' union hates the idea of their members being DNA profiled ... with technology like this, we can understand why! We recommend using this kit to immediately collect any semen, blood or hair the attackers have left behind.

This kit offers a safe, easy-to-use and detailed way to take and store your own DNA sample. Each pack includes a DNA storage kit, DNA profile request pack and detailed instructions. seal it up in the airtight self-sealing pouch to stabilize your DNA and prevent other agents from destroying or corrupting it. Want more detailed information? Take a second swab and send it in for analysis. Your unique DNA code and image will be sent to you within 45 days. Analysis of second swab requires an additional fee.

Again, you should contact police immediately before, during or after an assault has taken police. They have experts who can collect this kind of evidence far better than amateurs. But sadly, we cannot always trust the police to investigate such matters properly and rape evidence has been known to mysteriously disappear while in police hands. Think of this as a backup measure in case of police failure.

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We'll be adding to the catalogue as items become available and are drawn to our attention. Thank you for shopping with The Speccy!

Word Count: 1918

Tags: footy, bashing, rape, booze, sleaze, drugs

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

From time to time, I get vitriolic, hateful comments and threats (showcased on the sidebar on the right) and also genuine messages of support for my hard work here.

Like a lot of blogs, I have tip jar to allow donations from supporters. But what about the readers that loathe what's written here? You're hardly likely to spur me on by sending cash. But, if you're enraged and infuriated by what you read here, now is your chance to finally, once-and-for-all, Shut Me Up!

How? Easy. I've set a reserve price of AU$1000.00 to continue this blog (NB: See below for price update). Angry readers can throw into the pot. Once the reserve is reached, I'll stop bagging AFL players. I'll remove all the Speccy content from the internet. Forever. No more. It ends here.

That's right, I'm Selling Out!

Of course, readers who think this blog provides an important (or even just amusing) warning to the public about the dangers of drug-abusing, violent, criminally-connected and spoilt sex attackers are welcome to chip into the tip jar. Donations received in this way will count against those trying to shut me up!

Get it? The pot starts out at $1000 and increases as donations are received. However, it goes down as "anti-donations" are made via the Shut Me Up! button. Once it gets to $0, that's it, I'm out.

You may be wondering why on earth this would work. Well, you've got to keep in mind just how vain and rich these footballers are - the average is over $200K a year! So, yeah, for a measly few hours' pay they can get their dignity back and continue to maraud this fine city with impunity.

Let the bidding begin ...

*** Update ***
12/10/2006

To better reflect the utility I derive from this blog, the "buy out" price will increase from AU$1000 to AU$5000 (including any positive or negative contributions) on the one year anniversary of the initial offer - 25th of November, 2006. So, you've got six weeks left to buy me out under the old, cheaper price. After that, it will jump by $5000 (to a net $5005, based on current figures).

Good luck, and happy bidding.

Word Count: 383

Tags: footy, spoilt_rotten

Season 2005 Wrap Up

With the AFL Grand Final finally out of the way, hordes of footy players wreaking havoc on the populace of other places with their end-of-year footy trips, and their pimps and wranglers busily scheming away in (rough) Trade Week, it's time for some quiet reflection.

You see, this blog was motivated by The AFL's annus horribilis in 2004. The investigative journalists at 4 Corners had kicked over the dried turd of professional sport and exposed the writhing worms of drugs, rape and violence that pervades the industry. How has 2005 stacked up?

It's clear that the overpaid and under-educated AFL stars continue to receive "special treatment" at the hands of the police. Even though AFL players get their own free priority taxi service, Sav Rocca got the benefit of a police chauffeur service to spirit him away from the birth of his second son. (Seen one, seen them all, I guess.) Is leaving your wife like that a sign of commitment, or warped values? Dunno - but Nick Stevens would understand, given that he ditched his brother's wedding (where he was meant to be bestman)!

In any case, the police were also clearly pussy-footing around with a very light touch approach to Geelong players in a nightclub brawl. Would anyone else get treated like this? No wonder top cop Simon Overland doubts the ability of his detectives to investigate footy players properly - even over serious allegations like rape, as we saw with the Heath Culpitt "missing evidence" scandal.

What's makes these cosy arrangements with the coppers extremely dangerous is the apparently equally cosy arrangements with the underworld. Whether it's abduction and torture by bikies (Carlton), or emergency legal advice during a gang shoot-out (West Coast) - AFL players are there, right in the thick of it. But what would 22 year-olds making half a million bucks a year want with gangstas and bikies anyway?

Drug-taking was a recurrent theme this year. Ditched player Laurence Angwin came clean about the extent of drug use within the ranks of the AFL. Naturally, officials wanted to bury this, going as far as excluding the AFL from the WADA anti-doping protocol - under pressure from the AFL players' union who wanted to Fight ... for their Right ... to P-a-a-a-r-t-a-y! (Yet they were strangely quiet about the proposal to test player DNA.) The resulting humiliating backdown by the AFL wasn't the only one for the year. After shafting songstress Sylvie Paladino in favour of Delta, the AFL backed down on that one too.

Apart from the Grand Final pre-show entertainment, the other major cultural event in footy land was the Brownlow Medal Count Extravaganza. While the tackiness and desperation were toned down a little on previous years, there was still plenty of shameless pole-climbing on display - not to mention cleavage and fake-tan! Meanwhile, that mainstay of Aussie Rules culture - the massive ego-fest over at The AFL Footy Show - continued to spew its nastiness and poisonous "humour" on the world. When will the suffering end? I guess when seeing Sam Newman drink a bottle of bourbon on stage or expose his willy or dress up in black face paint stops being amusing to AFL fans. Fat chance.

Despite the best efforts of the police, some footy players actually made it into the legal system. The bizarre gang bashing at Fed Square by young thugs Dane Swan, Kade Carey and Aaron Ramsay continues to wend its way through the courts. I believe it's at the County Court now, and look forward to hearing the outcome. I'm sure the family of the beaten guards and intimidated witnesses are too. In another incident, Richmond lost its TAC sponsorship after teenager Shulz hooned through the city at twice the speed limit while pissed as a fart. I guess he couldn't wait for his free priority taxi. And serial pest Karl Norman finally got his come-uppance for trashing his rental property. Karma kicks in eventually.

Despite this criminality, it must be said that the gang rapes appear to be down on last year. This could be due to less reporting of them, increased reluctance by police to investigate, or possibly less rapes going public due to the AFL's deeply offensive rape buy-back policy. (Under this scheme, AFL rapists are given financial penalties and the victim bought off with some cash. We saw how this works previously; perhaps the clubs have perfected it?) Or maybe - just maybe - player education and media scrutiny (like this) has actually resulted in fewer women being raped by AFL players? I think it would be rash to dismiss this possibility entirely.

So even though I've been insulted (someone even called me a journalist!) and threatened with violence I'll continue to publish and update the AFL Player Threat Index, to help people protect themselves against further rapes and bashings. I'll also continue to publish cautionary tales, like that of Gary Ablett, in the hope that people will learn from the past.

Here's hoping that 2006 is a safer season for the rest of us.

Word Count: 891

Tags: footy, spoilt_rotten, rape, bashing, drugs, court

The AFL Meat Market

The description of AFL players as "Millionaires with a Year Ten Education" warrants further support. In an earlier article, I argued why professional footballers are (in general) so lacking in education, and the broader consequences for the rest of us. Here, I'll examine the first part of the claim - just how much are AFL players paid? Who are the most paid? Are they really millionaires? And what does this mean for society?

Firstly, I'll point out that their contracts are somewhat secret, in contrast to most other athletes. Secondly, they operate under a salary cap (which limits the total amount a particular club can officially spend on its players) so from time to time a club will engage in unusual practices to bolster a player's benefits. Hence any guesstimates tend to be a bit wild, and probably on the low side. A final consideration is that footballers - especially high-profile ones - don't pay for stuff. Star-struck footy fans give them free booze, free meals, free clothes, free accommodation, free sex and - as we saw with the Gary Ablett profile - they also get free drugs. So, they probably retain more of their earnings than you might initially think, given their expensive lifestyles.

The most comprehensive write-up on AFL player earnings was provided by The Age. For your convenience, I've compiled a graph showing the breakdown of player earnings for last year:

What is the Least an AFL Player Earns?

According to an earlier piece on Carlton rookie Karl Norman, he was "earning" $80K a year for his efforts. This seems to be a bit above the entry level wage for an AFL footballer, including match fees and other add-ons. The above graph indicates that 35 players (6%) are on less than $60K a year (how do they survive on such a pittance!). However, The Age's figures assumes there were 542 AFL players last year (33 per club) - which sounds high to me. I suspect that the bottom 50 players are being tried out or played just a couple of games or in some other way are exceptional (and hence should be disregarded).

A report from Deakin University suggests that in 2001 the base salary was $42,000 plus $2000 per match, yielding perhaps $70K a year for a newbie. Another piece from The Age puts the base earner in the AFL at $1150 per week (=$60K per year).

So, in short, the least a full-time professional AFL player can expect to ever earn in their career is around $70K. Most likely, that's still more than you.

What is the Average an AFL Player Earns?

According to The Age's figures for last year, there were 542 players earning a total of $93.75 million dollars, giving an average (mean) of $173,000 per player per year. Note that this includes a suspiciously large number of players on less than $60K, as discussed above. Also, the "mode" (or most common amount) was the $100-200K range. The "median" (or point at which half of players earn more, and half earn less) is close to $200K - if we exclude the <$60K group. Another set of figures from The Age stated an average AFL player makes $4,050 per week ($210K per annum).

Based on this, it's fair to say that the average AFL player earns around $200,000 a year.

What is the Most an AFL Player Earns?

Well, according to the above graph, only 20 players (4%) are in the half a million bucks a year category. The other figures from The Age cite a top earner on $16,300 a week ($850K). Yet more analysis for 2004 comes from the scuttlebutt purveyors at Crikey:

Anthony Koutoufides (Carlton) $900-000 to $1,000,000

Aaron Hamill (St Kilda) $800,000

Michel Voss (Brisbane) $700,000

James Hird (Essendon) $700,000

Nathan Buckley (Collingwood) $650,000

Shane Crawford (Hawthorn) $650,000

Chris Grant/Luke Darcy (Western Bulldogs) $550.000-600,000

Ben Cousins (West Coast) $550,000-$600.000

Matthew Richardson (Richmond) $550.000

David Neitz/Jeff White (Melbourne) $550,000

Glenn Archer/Anthony Stevens (Kangaroos) $550,000

Mark Ricciuto (Adelaide) $500,000-$550.000

Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) $500,000

Ben Graham (Geelong) $500,000

Barry Hall (Sydney) $500,000

Warren Tredrea (Port Power) $450,000-$500,000

(Source: Patrick Fitzgerald, Crikey, 12/6/2004.)

(These figures are estimates and are claimed to be +/-$50,000. I strongly recommend reading this report to understand how the market for sports pros works.)

Overall, there seems to be a rough agreement that (salary cap short-circuits notwithstanding), the most an AFL player could expect to earn right now is about million dollars a year, with the next step being about $500,000.

How Quickly are AFL Salaries Rising?

Pretty bloody fast. For example, this report for the Victorian Government states that total AFL player earnings were $27 million in 1992, growing to $48 million in 1995. Now, The Age puts the total at about $94 million. So, average AFL salaries have increased from $48K to $200K (four-fold) in less than 15 years. Over roughly the same period, average weekly earnings for all Australians rose about 50% (according to the ABS), while AFL players' rose 300%. There's a lot of fat still in the system (players take about a quarter of the AFL's revenue, not a half or more like in other leagues), so there's no reason this dramatic rise won't continue.

In other words, AFL players' wages are increasing six times faster than yours.

So Are Most AFL Footballers Millionaires?

Put it this way: if you're averaging $200K a year for five years you'll earn a million dollars (and pay half of it in tax). But, even with all the freebies, you'll probably spend most of what's left. Why? Because what 22 year old in his right mind would save and invest when getting that kind of money? Particularly when he's indestructible, the best thing since sliced bread and about to sign a huge multi-million dollar contract any day now.

So, to be a millionaire footballer (ie having at least a million dollars in cash and assets), I reckon you'd need to either be in the top 50% for a ten year career, or be in the top 5% for a five year career. So, that's what - the best 10% of AFL players? Maybe 20%?

So Does This Mean Your Tagline Is Unfair?

Nah. The bulk of them might not be millionaires (and some may even have been to university!) but they still behave like they are spoilt princelings from an oil-rich Gulf State. I think footballers are quite capable of being obnoxious, even dangerous, arseholes on a mere $200,000 per year, or just half a million in the bank.

Are AFL Players Paid Too Much?

How would you decide if anyone is paid too much? Here's one approach. Ask yourself: what would they be doing if they weren't playing AFL? How much more are they getting paid than in their next best alternative? I would argue that if you have lots of options close to your current salary, then you're probably not being overpaid.

For example, a stockbroker might make $150K a year. If that career wasn't possible for some reason, she might have been an accountant, making $130K a year. So, she's being paid about right. By contrast, if you're a crane-operator on the docks on $90K and the next best job is a crane-driver at a building site on $50K, then yes, I'd suggest you're being overpaid.

Can we apply this principle to AFL footballers?

Some AFL footballers have turned down lucrative careers in other sports, like cricket, soccer or tennis. A very small minority may have turned down careers in the professions where they could expect to make good money as well. (For example, James Hird could have averaged $100K for 40 years if he'd stuck it out as a civil engineer.)

But, for the most part, there's no reason to think that AFL players (as a group) would earn any more or less than the public at large, if it weren't for footy. If anything, they would earn less than the public, given their unusually poor education.

In Australia, the average salary is around $50K, while footballers average $200K. If we all put our collective foot down and said "Look guys, you love to play the game, we love to watch. But you're only going to average $75K from now on," then they would still accept that and be grateful. Hell, they were happy with that about ten years ago!

So, yeah, for what it's worth, I reckon AFL players are overpaid by at least a hundred grand a year.

Still, that doesn't stop their union getting all sulky about wanting more money - but can you blame the poor dears for asking? (These are people who don't hear "no" very often.)

What Are the Implications for Society for Overpaying Footballers?

Well, for one thing, ticket prices are too high. Presumably lots of families miss out on going to see the game they love because it's just too damn dear. The AFL has to win a bigger pound of flesh fron the TV rights to pay for the footballers. End result: more ads during the match than are strictly necessary. But, these are fairly peripheral: whose to say what is the best price for tickets or the best number of ads anyway?

No, the real damage is done through the application of ruthless, free-market, commercial principles to what is, after all, a very high-stakes game. It's one thing for these price mechanisms to be brought to be bear on, say, commercial QCs - highly educated, intelligent, worldly professionals with twenty years of experience in such matters. It's another thing if it's a slightly dim 19 year-old who just wants to play footy.

Oddly enough, noted Celebrity Big Brother piker Germaine Greer explains it best:

All athletes live on a knife edge. All are only as good as their last performance. All are incessantly reminded there is only one way to go after reaching the top.

The footballers' situation is the most precarious of all. As the last in the pecking order, after club owners, directors and managers, players are denied adult status. They are "boys" to be bought and sold, transferred or dropped or left on the bench; as they are denied autonomy, we can't be surprised if they lack responsibility. (SMH, 23/3/2004)

So perhaps this is the price we all pay for treating AFL players like A grade choice cuts of meat to be bought, sold or traded on the open market. Society ends up with a large pool of spoilt brats, lacking the capacity for any other useful contribution and behaving like no one else matters, egging each other on to greater and greater excesses.

In other words, after one hundred years of supposed egalitarianism, we've gone ahead and created our own parasitic aristocracy. Way to go, Australia.

References:

Why a Free Market is Bad for Sports Fans, (Crikey, 12/6/2004)

The Business of Sport, (Sport and Recreation Victoria, 1997)

Sport Management Newsletter, (Deakin University, 2001)

Cap in Place to Stop Clubs Being Scalped, (The Age, 21/4/2005)

More Please, (The Age, 15/3/2005)

Yearbook Australia: Labour - Earnings and Benefits, (The Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2005)

Grubby Sex Has Just Become a Bit Noisier, (Sydney Morning Herald, 23/3/2004)

Word Count: 1973

Tags: footy, spoilt_rotten, payola

Introducing ... The AFL Footballer Threat Level

In the interests of public safety, this blog is now implementing a warning system for risks from AFL players (see right). This move borrows from the US Department of Homeland Security's Advisory System, but is simplified to only three levels.

The idea is to provide people - especially young women - with an indication of the current expected relative risk of being near footballers while out on the town or socialising with friends. Since the frequency of incidents seems to vary throughout the annual football cycle, the risk level is to some degree predictable.

The different levels are explained here.

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GREEN



Risk of bashings, rapes and other assaults from AFL footballers is lower than usual. Footballers are less likely to be encountered in popular nightspots and are less likely to be affected by drugs or alcohol. However, men and young women are still cautioned about approaching groups of footballers alone.

This condition is met during intensive training periods or when public scrutiny is exceptionally high, such as immediately following a nasty incident going public.

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ORANGE



Risk of bashings, rapes and other assaults from AFL footballers is elevated relative to the general public. Footballers can be expected in popular nightspots and may be affected by drugs or alcohol. All men and young women are advised to avoid footballers without taking precautions such as having bouncers or guards present, or at least being monitored by fixed security cameras.

This is the typical level of risk associated with AFL players during their playing season.

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RED



Risk of bashings, rapes and other assaults from AFL footballers is higher than usual even by player standards. Footballers are likely to be present in popular nightspots and most likely will be affected by drugs or alcohol. All men and young women are advised to avoid venues where the presence of footballers is likely and should be prepared to leave immediately any area should they arrive. Under no circumstances should you allow yourself to be alone with one.

This situation arises after teams have been knocked out of competition or when dangerous players have received suspensions or injuries that prevent them from playing. It also applies to AFL teams "on retreat" or end-of-season trips.

---

While careful not to mention the names of individuals, readers are invited to provide intelligence about pending activities to help reflect the true risk level.

Word Count: 404

Tags: footy, rape, drugs, bashing

Wrap Up of Season 2004

Many would ask "Isn't it just vindictive compiling a list of the bad behaviour of Aussie Rules footballers?", to which I reply: Yes, it is. But I believe it's in the public interest to go some way to balancing the the misconception that because a person is a good kick of the footy, that they should be hailed and feted like superstars.

Wiser heads than mine have argued that, as I'm "actuated by malice", I am exposing myself to defamation action. Fortunately, it's a long-held legal principle that you can't defame a group and the local Anti-Vilification legislation does not yet protect footballers.

So, back to matters at hand, The Age (Melbourne's leading newspaper) has a nice wrap up of last year's season:

The controversy started in March when St Kilda players Stephen Milne and Leigh Montagna were accused of rape by two women and interviewed by police.

Both players were eventually cleared - and were not charged - but a flood of allegations from women against other AFL players followed.

It was revealed Port's Peter Burgoyne and ex-player Adam Heuskes had been charged with rape over an alleged incident, but later had the charges dropped.

It was also revealed the pair, along with Swan Michael O'Loughlin, paid the woman hush money to keep quiet.

In another allegation, a group of Hawthorn players were accused of gang-rape on a 1999 end-of-season trip in Hawaii.

For a code heavily reliant on family support, the bad news kept coming.

Hawks Lance Picioane and Danny Jacobs were caught drink-driving, while Carlton players Laurence Angwin and Karl Norman were sacked and sanctioned respectively by their club for arriving at training when they were believed to be under the influence of recreational drugs.

Collingwood players were involved in a mid-season drinking binge in Queensland that even had Magpies president Eddie McGuire criticised for not reporting the news as host of The Footy Show. (The Age, 18/12/2004)

Ahh, Eddie. Football club president and high-profile media commentator. "Conflict of interest" is just an old-fashioned term for "synergy" for you, right?

Citations: The Age, 18/12/2004

Word Count: 357

Tags: footy, rape, drugs, court